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Objective Probability

Source: Investopedia
This Article has been Edited for Accessibility

Objective Probability

What is 'Objective Probability'

The probability that an event will occur based an analysis in which each measure is based on a recorded observation, rather than a subjective estimate. Objective probabilities are a more accurate way to determine probabilities than observations based on subjective measures, such as personal estimates.

Explaining 'Objective Probability'

For example, one could determine the objective probability that a coin will land "heads" up by flipping it 100 times and recording each observation. When performing any statistical analysis, it is important for each observation to be an independent event that has not been subject to manipulation. The less biased each observation is, the less biased the end probability will be.


Additional Resources

  1. A Subjective Foundation Of Objective Probability [kellogg.northwestern.edu]
  2. Probability And Uncertainty In Economic Modeling [ssc.upenn.edu]
  3. Choice Under Uncertainty [web.stanford.edu]
  4. Objective Probability Objective Value Objectivism [nyu.edu]
  5. Eliciting Objective Probabilities Via Lottery Insurance ... [hanson.gmu.edu]
  6. Probability Weighting [columbia.edu]